McCain takes Gallup lead with DNC in full swing significance

DENVER, Colo. | Midway through the Democratic National Convention, national polling is placing a huge elephant — in the form of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. — squarely in the middle of Denver’s Pepsi Convention Center.

McCain pulled in front of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in a Gallup tracking poll released Wednesday morning, just days after Democrats should have enjoyed a bounce from Obama’s vice presidential pick of Joe Biden. Now, as the nation awaits a historic speech from the Democratic nominee, which will take place Friday night, insiders and pundits alike are debating the impact of Biden’s selection.

Most expect McCain to announce his choice for running mate shortly after the Democratic Convention wraps up. The man whom many believe will be sharing the ticket come Friday sat down in an interview with The Crimson White. While he brushed aside questions about his potential candidacy, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts was dismissive of any positive response to Biden’s selection.

“The Biden bump has not been a positive one,” Romney said. “People recognize that Obama may be a charming person but [he] does not have the experience or leadership to lead this country at this critical time with regards to the economy or foreign policy, and he just isn’t ready to lead America.”

Already in fine political form, Romney also explained why he thinks McCain is the easy choice for college students.

“I think they’ll recognize in John McCain that we have someone who will strengthen the economy, who will do whatever it takes to get us off foreign oil and will keep America safe,” he said.

Members of the Obama campaign aren’t placing much weight on recent polling, as many claim they weren’t expecting much of a polling impact from last Saturday’s news. Tom Daschle, former Senate majority leader and two-year veteran of the Obama campaign, told The CW he doesn’t believe vice presidential bumps exist in modern politics.

“You don’t get bumps in politics the way you used to in part because of what we’re seeing right here with the media,” Daschle said. “There’s so much politics that bumps just don’t occur anymore like the old days, where you had a spurt of new coverage and new energy, then people responded.

“Those bumps don’t exist anymore. I don’t think you’re going to see a bump out of the convention. I don’t think you’re going to see a bump out of the Republican convention. It’s something of the past.”

The CW also met with Mike Murphy, former adviser to John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger, and NBC political analyst Tucker Carlson to get a view from across the aisle as they dissect the current state of the race, vice presidential ramifications and how they see things shaking out in November.

The Crimson White: Why is a 71-year old man with limited campaign skills who is strapped to a directionless party — a party that doesn’t even wholly embrace him — leading in the polls midweek of the DNC?

Mike Murphy: Here’s the Democrat dilemma, and they have a great year. Right now, the election hasn’t really started yet, but at the beginning of the election the American people want a Democrat more than a Republican president. They have a generic ballot advantage. But when you actually put names in there it tends to even two or three points.

Barack got up about seven, but it tends to be within the margin of error, which is four.

There’s a gap. Barack doesn’t do as well as the Democratic brand.

McCain, because of his maverick history, has the opportunity and the potential; we’ll see if he gets it, to do better than the Republican brand. He has to, to win this year.
Barack has an advantage early in the campaign, and he has the convention and the debates to help him, but he’s not quite lived up to what he could be doing. McCain has seen his potential but he still has to live up to it. That’s why we have a race.

Tucker Carlson: It makes you think that maybe the American people don’t embrace socialism as completely as I thought they did. But maybe there are other factors. You know, I’m not emotionally involved in either campaign, but it’s good to see people skeptical of grand promises like universal health care and other forms of socialism — that’s what they are. It’s not an insult; it’s a description.

But, ultimately, he is running against a guy who, four years ago, was a state senator from Illinois who was unknown outside of Springfield. Even in modern America that’s pretty reckless. That you would take a guy who is not even fifty and, as George Will said, has not even run a Dairy Queen — a guy who’s last job was as a community activist, the ultimate bulls--- job — and you now make him president.

Again, he’s really talented, smart, very eloquent, great campaign organization, but still a lot of people stand back and say, “Holy smokes, who are you?” So I’m not surprised.

CW: The Biden selection has seemed to have a muted effect on polls, are you surprised there has been no visible impact?

TC: I’ve been kind of surprised that he hasn’t gotten a bump out of Biden. Maybe it’s because I live in Washington and I know Biden and I actually like Biden. I don’t agree with him on anything, but I like him.

I think he’s a serious person, a very eccentric person. Definitely smart, and certainly seems to be very knowledgeable about the world. I think Biden’s the kind of guy who doesn’t speak in generalities but very specifically. You ask him about Pakistan, he won’t say, “You know, in the post-Cold War world…” He’ll say, “Well, Kurdistan...” and then he’ll give you the history of the region.

He’s very knowledgeable and I would have thought that would have given Obama more, but so far it certainly hasn’t. You would think that his foreign policy experience would help Obama, but Americans really don’t care about foreign policy. They may pretend they do. They may tell pollsters they do, but I can tell you, just from looking at TV ratings, the second you put a foreign policy-related story on the tube people turn to “Wheel of Fortune.”

MM: I think polling now is not very trustworthy. It’s half-cooked. It’s kind of like what cake tastes like when you take it out of the oven before you’ve cooked it. So I don’t trust these early polls.

We’ll know what’s going on in this race in about two-and-a-half weeks, after this convention, after the Republican convention. When the people have had a dose of both. So I don’t really trust the tracking polls.

I think Joe was a solid choice. I think Tim Kaine of Virginia might have been a slightly stronger choice politically, but Biden is very solid. Ultimately, what I’ve found, at least in recent history, you never know when its going to change, but historically the VP isn’t that big of a deal — it’s the nominees. So it’s just about Barack Obama and John McCain. Who McCain picks will be important but people won’t make their decision by that.

CW: Who makes the most sense as a running mate for McCain?

MM: I have two top choices. My first choice is Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania. My second is Mitt Romney of Michigan/Massachusetts. I think they’d both be great. I kind of like Tom because of Pennsylvania, [McCain] and Ridge are friends, he’s a decorated Veteran and I like the fact that he’s pro-choice.

I think the Big 10 approach would help us this year with those critical ticket splitters, those swing voters — Democrats or Republicans — that McCain needs to win. I’m not sure anyone can deliver Pennsylvania, but I think he can sure help.

TC: I don’t think Ron Paul would take it … [laughs]. I know there’s a lot of enthusiasm about Romney. I guess we’re at the point where he is about as real as of conservative as we’re going to get, but he doesn’t convince me. Twenty minutes ago, he had completely different views. He seems like a very talented opportunist. I’m not sold on him. I like Mark Sanford, but I think he’s far too libertarian. Sanford’s a completely solid guy. I would like to have seen him run.

CW: Who’s our next president?

TC: This race is all about Obama. If Obama turns out to be the guy he says he is, he’ll win by a lot. If he turns out to be a phony, he’ll lose. I don’t think McCain is a huge factor either way. I don’t think McCain can win; I think Obama can lose. It’s not McCain’s fault. Obama is riding an anti-Bush wave and he’s really talented, a great communicator, and I think he’s likely to win.

MM: Will Barack’s weaknesses and McCain’s special strengths combine to let McCain win in a democratic year? I think it could.